Meta Ads Creative Fatigue & Frequency Decay Estimator
Interactive diagnostic to model creative frequency curves, calculate First-Time Impression Ratio (FTIR) decay, and forecast CPA escalation.
Meta Ads Creative Fatigue & Frequency Decay Estimator
Paid Media DiagnosticModel creative saturation, first-time impression ratio decay (FTIR), and CPA escalation across Meta Ads audience segments. Identify your burnout threshold before efficiency drops.
Campaign & Audience Parameters
Fatigue Diagnostics & CPA Impact
Efficiency Decay Comparison
- Estimated Unique Reach:139,392 users (40% of pool)
- Click-Through Rate (CTR):1.8% (from 1.85%)
- Conversion Rate (CVR):2.8% (from 2.8%)
- Auction Saturated CPM:$22.5 (from $22.5)
- Cost per Acquisition Escalation:+$1.20 / order (+2.8%)
Fatigue Action Plan
- Creative is fresh and delivering strong efficiency. Maintain current budget pacing and monitor weekly frequency trends.
Why First-Time Impression Ratio Outperforms Raw Frequency
Average campaign frequency hides audience concentration. In large audiences, a frequency of 2.5 often means 20% of users saw the ad 8 times while 50% saw it once. Tracking the First-Time Impression Ratio identifies creative fatigue earlier than aggregate frequency metrics.
Implementation Code & Script
Calculates first-time impression ratio decay and projected CPA escalation across ad sets.
export function calculateFtirDecay(frequency: number, formatHalfLife: number = 1.0): number {
const excessFreq = Math.max(0, frequency - 1.0);
const rawRatio = Math.exp((-0.45 * excessFreq) / formatHalfLife);
return Number((Math.max(0.05, Math.min(1.0, rawRatio)) * 100).toFixed(1));
}How to cite and attribute this tool
MIT LicenceThis resource is free, open and un-gated under the MIT Open Source Licence. You are encouraged to use, integrate and cite it with attribution:
@misc{geraghty_meta_ads_creative_fatigue_estimator,
author = {Geraghty, Gordon},
title = {Meta Ads Creative Fatigue & Frequency Decay Estimator},
year = {2026},
url = {https://gordongeraghty.com/resources/performance-media/meta-ads-creative-fatigue-estimator},
note = {Head of Performance, Empire Amplify}
}Changelog & Version History
v1.0.0Initial release of creative fatigue calculator with FTIR decay modeling.